Macroeconomic indicators of the UK
Average earnings
The indicator takes into account the growth of earnings over the past three months. This is a good indicator of future inflation, as growth in earnings is the cause of rising prices. It is one of the defining indicators that the Bank of England takes into account during its meetings on interest rates. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
CBI industrial trends
A survey of senior manufacturing executives on trends in output, prices, exports, and costs. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey collects data on topics like current business confidence, capacity utilization, and investment intentions. The survey differs from most other economic surveys in that it focuses on the opinions of executives rather than quantitative data. Published monthly at 7:00 AM (EST).
CBI Distributive Trades Survey
It is a survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry. The indicator represents short-term tendencies in the sector of retail and wholesale trade. It is calculated on the basis of interviews in the retail trade sector. Published monthly 7:00 AM (EST). Gross domestic product (GDP)
It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as the following: GDP = C + I + S + (E - M), where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - Exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index against the previous period, and in terms of absolute value of sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. GDP represents the sum of volumes of consumption, investment, government spending, exports and net imports. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency. The bond market depends on GDP but security prices vary slightly due to the predictability of GDP based on monthly statistics of its constituents. GDP is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It has a significant impact on the market. The index value is quite volatile from quarter to quarter cause of which is greater fluctuations in net exports and inventories. Therefore, economists consider the value of sales volume of the end product excluding inventories that represent unsold product, and their growth can greatly increase the value of GDP.
Producer input prices (PPI input)
A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. The figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Producer output prices (PPI output)
A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Retail Prices Index
RPI is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics. It measures the change in the cost of a basket of retail goods and services. It was once the principal official measure of inflation, but it been superseded in that regard by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The RPI is used by the government as a base for various purposes, such as the indexation of pensions and amounts payable on index-linked securities, including index-linked gilts. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Purchasing managers index CIPS (PMI)
The index is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 600 industrial companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on the regional, and industry contribution to GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report' shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the 'diffusion' index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding 'the same'.
Non-EU Trade Balance
The totality of all country's trade operations in world's rate with the deduction of trade with the counties which are included in European Union. The balance of trade surplus - is the difference between the amount of produced and exported production, and the amount of imported production. Simply speaking the balance of trade surplus can be calculated according to this formula:
Trade balance = Export - Import
When the balance of trade surplus turns out to be positive, it means that the country's economy develops in a good way and the trade balance is in the state of surplus. If the process is opposite and the trade balance is in shortcoming, then there will surely be some deficit and of course it will have a bad influence on the economical state, national currency and confidence in country's lending activity. The trade balance is measured in the currency that the indicator was calculated from. Consequently, the British trade balance is measured in British pounds. The index is referred to the first group and turns out to be one of the most significant indicators of economy's successfulness.
Public Sector Net Credit Requirements (PSNCR)
It represents the demand of the public and government sector for cash. It includes the budget deficit, i.e. the difference between income and expenditures. A large fiscal deficit leads to an increase in public debt and can serve as a catalyst for accelerating inflation. It is caused by either very expensive or low income of the budget. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
M4 Money Supply
It is used as an indicator of changes in money supply. It includes the amount of cash in circulation, the total amount of loans as well as the amount of government borrowings. M4 is considered to be a good indicator for the level of inflation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Retail Sales
The index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It is an indicator of consumer spending and, therefore, as an indicator of consumer demand and consumer confidence it can serve as a key point for the foreign exchange market in reversal points of the business cycle. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Net Consumer Credit
The amount of loans granted to individuals. It reflects changes in the volume of consumer lending. The value of the indicator can show if the economy is overheating or not as consumers take more credits than necessary. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Claimant count rate
It is the number of job application in employment centers. This indicator reflects ongoing changes in the level of unemployment. Published monthly at 4:30 (EST).
Trade balance
The trade balance represents the difference between export and import of goods and services of countries in terms of their price. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
Industrial output
It represents the volume of industrial output. The index includes the volume of manufacturing output and takes into account the volume of output in industries such as mining, utilities. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).
